This is the Halloween edition of the CAOS Theory blog, so please, if you scare easy, consider reading this another time or place where you feel more comfortable. There are some scary things lurking out there for Linux and open source software. Boo! Patents. Eeeeeek! Microsoft. Yikes! Forking. Nooooooo! Mobs of shareholders protesting the opening of company code. But fear not, freedom and efficiency fans of free and open source software. These things that go bump in the market, none of them, are likely to hurt, hamper, maim, slash or otherwise harm the movement, despite dire predictions from some. Here’s why:

Patents - reform is in the making. Most agree that U.S. court rulings, reform initiatives and defensive efforts are all having an impact. The recent patent suit against Linux vendors Red Hat and Novell? Not so scary, really. The SCO saga has proven that open source and its vendors and communities can play equally if not better than any other software vendor or consortia when it comes to IP fights. Furthermore, despite what some of its executives say, Microsoft has made it clear it does not intend to sue Linux or open source vendors or users. Instead, the company views intellectual property as currency to deal with Linux vendors and others it has partnered with, including Sun, Novell, Xandros and most recently, Turbolinux.

Next monster in the closet: Forking. This one is interesting, and is probably the most real threat, but I recently became more enlightened on the topic after speaking to Linux kernel developer and SteelEye Technology VP and CTO James Bottomley. He indicated that forking is a necessary risk for a truly free and open, collaborative software project or product. However, he pointed out that forking can also take the form of healthy competition, bringing diversity and evolution to the process. His example: real-time Linux. Developers had previously rejected incorporation of real-time capabilities in the kernel, and a handful of vendors (including TimeSys, Monta Vista, IBM and Novell) were all forking their own real-time versions. However, the friction from all of that forking has brought Linux developers, and real-time capabilities, back to the kernel. Bottomley calls it a lesson in how forking works for Linux, provided forks move upstream. Now that’s nothing to be afraid of, is it?

As for the open source skeptics who continue to doubt open source can make money or serve as a sustainable business model, they should remain scared. With that kind of thinking, whether at an ages-old proprietary vendor or SAAS startup, they are likely to be replaced soon. Open source is knocking on your door. Trick or treat.