451 CAOS Theory 
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2008 to be year of non-desktop Linux
Jay Lyman, January 3, 2008 @ 2:19 pm ETI wanted to be among the first to post about how 2008 looks to be the year of desktop Linux (half jokingly, of course). Then I thought about how far the Linux OS has to go before it is approaching even Apple’s slice of the market (which by the way is getting bigger).
Fact is, with a variety of new and old PC form factors and vendor initiatives, 2008 will probably be quite good for desktop Linux. It could darn well be a breakout year. However, I don’t think we’ll be hearing as much in 2008 about desktop uses of Linux as we will about other forms of Linux driving its use.
Top of the list is virtual appliances, which typically run a trimmed-down OS. Linux is free, flexible, stable and secure. It is helping drive virtual appliances, with vendors such as virtualization veteran VMware and its Virtual Appliance Marketplace as well as newcomers such as JumpBox building appliances on the open source OS. We’ll also see more from Red Hat, which is incorporating appliances prominently in its latest Linux strategy.
2008 should also bring a continuation of Linux preference and productivity for embedded and mobile devices. Linux lies at the center of Android, Google’s forray into mobile device software. Linux is also the fastest-growing business segment for embedded and device OS sellers such as Wind River, which sees no slowing of Linux not only in mobile devices, but also in networking equipment and the hot segment of automotive infotainment (aka vehicle telematics).
We can also expect more action around real-time Linux, which is getting a big-time push by some significant forces. First and foremost are financial services customers willing to pay high premiums for any performance increases they can get. Vendors such as Concurrent, Monta Vista, Novell and Red Hat are all looking to respond to these and other high-end customers. In addition, the Linux kernel community has come around to real-time and is now driving both collaboration and competition.
Closely related is supercomputing and HPC. I wrote in 2007 about the continued leadership of Linux among the world’s top supercomputers and HPC. The trend should continue in 2008, giving Linux (represented by a handful of companies rather than one) the kind of dominance that Microsoft has held on the North American desktop.
Sure, we’ll be hearing about desktop Linux and the OS should manage some substantial gains there, but I believe these other uses of Linux are what will really highlight 2008.
Comments (13) Categories: Software
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptI wanted to be among the first to post about how 2008 looks to be the year of desktop Linux (half jokingly, of course). Then I thought about how far the Linux OS has to go before it is approaching even Apple’s slice of the market (which … [...]
[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]
Actually, GNU/Linux on the desktop caught up with Mac OS a few years ago. They are doing well these days in the year of the Vista flop. NetApplications lists GNU/Linux at less than 1% while w3schools lists GNU/Linux at more than 3%. They cannot both be right and in fact both are underestimating GNU/Linux because they have a North American/Windows leaning. GNU/Linux is very hot in Brazil/Russia/India/China. See Google.com/trends and look up linux,windows for USA and for China to see what I mean. Checkout Beijing while you are at it. The growth rate of GNU/Linux has been very high for years and we know millions of GNU/Linux systems run there due to deals by SUN and TurboLinux and RedFlag. There are many more people in the developing world who will absorb GNU/Linux on the new cheap platforms. Expect dramatic growth in 2008. ASUS alone expects to add 5 million seats. ASUS competitors will jump on that bandwagon.
You recommended doint the google trends search. However, it did not show what you say. Apparently the gap between linux and windows stays the same or even widens a little bit. No good news?
That’s the result for the selections ‘All countries’, Germany, France, India, Russia, Brazil, Japan…
Nearly every group that looks at share, looks at paid share, where someone has gone into a store, and purchased a copy, either off the shelf or with a new computer, This is fine for Windows, because that is the way most people obtain Windows. However, Linux is more often obtained through online downloads, and there often is no indication how many copies are downloaded.
Often a person purchasing a new computer, ends up with a copy of Windows, whether they actually want it or not, even if they remove it and install Linux, that’s still a paid copy of Windows, and it’s counted for Windows, but not Linux. So Linux on the desk top may be far more popular then the “paid share” indicators show,
I suspect that as Windows gets more and more expensive, and hardware continues to get cheaper, making Windows a larger and larger piece of the cost pie, that more and more vendors will be pressured into looking for alternatives, especially smaller vendors.
[...] This work is highly commendable and is the kind of thing that gives Linux staying power in a variety of uses, including server, mobile, embedded and desktop [...]
[...] is a very interesting move, and one that potentially backs-up Jay’s contention that 2008 will be the year of non-desktop [...]
[...] advantage Jay Lyman, June 24, 2008 @ 5:46 pm ET We had a feeling this might be a big year more for non-desktop Linux, particularly for mobile and embedded uses of the open source OS. This week’s deal by Finnish [...]
[...] director Jim Zemlin how significant Linux is in the mobile and embedded spaces, some of the non-desktop Linux uses we predicted would be hot this [...]
[...] into the Linux Sandwich of 2009 Jay Lyman, January 8, 2009 @ 1:22 pm ET I wrote last year about how 2008 would be the ‘Year of Non-desktop Linux’. As we embark on [...]
[...] exactly what Linux will be in 2010 and beyond. We’ve already discussed progress for non-desktop Linux and the layered pervasiveness of Linux. Now let’s consider what might happen as Linux quietly [...]
[...] our annual outlook on Linux for the new year, and after spending the last few years highlighting non-desktop Linux in 2008, the range of Linux in 2009 and hidden Linux in 2010, they will all be coming together in [...]
[...] domination Jay Lyman, January 5, 2012 @ 2:10 pm ET Previously, I’ve called out years for non-desktop Linux in 2008, Linux in both the low and high-ends of the market in 2009, ‘hidden’ Linux in 2010 and [...]