451 CAOS Theory 
A blog for the enterprise open source community
Looking for Linux, but sold out
Jay Lyman, January 20, 2009 @ 2:21 pm ETI had an interesting time scouring the Internet for the right netbook for my wife, who’s got a birthday coming up, is due for a new computer and is anxious to use Linux more regularly. While there was the usual difficulty in finding the right specs and color, the biggest hangup was trying to find an Acer Aspire One netbook with Linux on it. It’s not that they aren’t made by the manufacturer, it’s that all the Linux netbooks seem to be getting gobbled up. What was widely available in all of the color, memory, hard-drive and other forms was Windows XP. There were loads and loads of Windows XP netbooks, and even though I’ve had experience paying the ‘Microsoft tax’ and just throwing on the Linux distribution of my choice, my wife wasn’t on board for that. I guess all of my struggling to get sound and WiFi working on my four-year old laptop gave her some reservations. Besides, she wanted a new Linux netbook, and I’m all for buying the Linux pre-installs so manufacturers see and feel the demand and keep making them.
The message for Acer and other manufacturers: up your ratio of Linux netbooks. While North America seems to be the main market for these machines, about 30% of which run Linux by most accounts, among my dwindling options for obtaining the right Linux netbook were in Canada and the UK. However, the shipping costs added onto my minimal netbook expense of ~$350. While there were a number of online outlets that were sold out of the Linpus version, most of these same places had hundreds, sometimes thousands of XP netbooks in stock. It became quite frustrating to have to skip over all of those XP listings, and it reminded me a bit of the penguin chase for Linux PCs that I experienced years ago.
My netbook searching also came at a time when the PC industry is in turmoil, much of which is being caused by the disruption of netbooks. I believe much of that disruption, which centers largely on price, has to do with the Linux and other open source software running on those netbooks as well.
In the end, we ended up finding a different color than originally desired, but with more memory and more storage. My wife was also thrilled to discover the world of netbook skins that are available to give her a variety of cool designs to temporarily paste onto her new computer. I think the netbook skins and accessories highlight another advantage of netbooks in the current market in that they allow the PC ecosystem to continue. Even if manufacturers may be getting smaller margins on netbooks, I suspect they will add skins, cool designs and other less technical features to help sweeten their profits.
The dearth of Linux netbooks available in the face of many XP netbooks available further confirms the idea that going forward, Linux will be increasingly prominent and important in this explosive new market.
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I would like to see some real numbers on this. Yes, there is a “Microsoft tax” for the license fee. But there is also the fees PAID by the vendors of antiviral software and the like to the OEMS for the inclusion of their “crapware” on the product. This offsets the cost of the computer. In the end you might get the the best value by purchasing the Windows machine and then installing your favorite Linux distro. The web has plenty of instructions. I regret having to support Microsoft in this way then again I regret the way my government spends my tax dollars. It’s the bottom line that counts.
It’s my understanding that manufacturers take advantage of the greater compactness of linux and the superior security it offers to put less RAM (and perhaps a smaller disk) on the machines, thereby making them cheaper (but less cost-effective, even though the linux distro is free - sort of, charge less for what you sell more of, even if it costs more). If so, I would expect to see linux dominate when it reaches critical sales mass.
Not really an issue with netbooks. It’s hard to load crapware and still get the same performance on a netbook. The lower spec hardware on most of them won’t even run Vista, hence the extension of XP. But even that runs slow compared to a well-tuned Linux distro.
keep in mind that eventually the crapware add-ons will end, or at least their payments to hardware vendor will, because enough people will be formatting that crap away and never buying/renewing a license with the crapware purveyors… Eventually the problem will resolve itself, even if people continue to pay the MS tax in the short term, because once the crapware purveyors stop offsetting the MS tax, the price difference (saving of being fOSS-based) will become obvious
I’ve just been going through the same hunt, also interested in the Aspire One and likewise finding much more choice and availability of machines with XP on them.
I’m not convinced this is as simple as the linux based machines selling better. My guess is that Microsoft were caught by surprise with netbooks and have been pretty aggressive since with manufacturers getting XP onto the things. I’d bet the manufacturers are getting the OS for next to nothing, probably been made offers they can’t refuse
One other puzzle, anyone know why amazon.ca doesn’t have netbooks on offer, whereas amazon.com has a good selection?
I think the real reason that Linux netbooks are hard to find is that manufactures and shops are still skeptical about Linux and since Windows XP is an option, that’s what they offer.
It should be extremely simple to convert a Windows netbook into a Linux machine (because we already know that Linux drivers are available because a Linux variant exists). So, if vendors wanted to deliever Linux, they could do so.
There may also be a hidden Microsoft tax on Linux devices. Maybe decreasing the percentage of Microsoft OSs sold does not really decrease the total amount to be paid to the Redmond Giant
That was supposed to have been ruled illegal for Microsoft to do. Whether they abide by it or not…
It is unlikely that the Linux offerings are outselling their XP counterparts. I’m more inclined to believe that resellers are simply stocking more XP netbooks than Linux ones as they think that potential customers will want to have something familiar to them.
[QUOTE]While there were a number of online outlets that were sold out of the Linpus version, most of these same places had hundreds, sometimes thousands of XP netbooks in stock.[/QUOTE]
While one way to read this information is that GNU/Linux based net-books are selling quicker, the other way to view this information is that the stores are stocking more of the Windows XP net-books than the GNU/Linux ones.
One way around is to pre-order. This will do two things:
1. with enough orders coming in, the stores will be forced to act on the statistical data of which items are ordered more and which sit on the shelf.
2. it will offset the imbalance pushed into the market by Microsoft lobbying the net-book industry to push more XP net-books out into the market.
Sellers will always stock what sells. So ordering exactly what you want is far more effective than getting what you don’t want and then customising it to suit you.
I don’t think it’s being argued that *more* Linux netbooks than XP netbooks are selling, as in more than 50%. Since the baseline seems to be around 30% Linux, that would be tough.
What does seem clear is that, whatever percentage the vendors are estimating, Linux is selling more than that. They underestimated the demand for Linux, overestimated the demand for XP. Thus they are selling out of Linux miniboxen, and having XP left n the shelves. The actual sales percentages are almost beside the point, given that we can’t know what the percentages would be like if Linux netbooks were always available. Some demand for Linux netbooks is remaining unfilled, and in many cases XP is being accepted as a substitute–under these circumstances, sales figures will mislead if you’re trying to determine demand.
@Rufus Polson - Agree entirely, whatever the ratio, it’ll be getting skewed.
Another issue I find interesting were the early claims about return rates, unmatched expectations, and whether/how this could be attributed to retailers not building the correct expectation of the benefits of one OS over the other. Just as early punters who didn’t know any better and got home to find Linux was not Windows, how are all these buyers of the XP version going to feel in April when XP goes EOL for all that aren’t on expensive corporate “Extended Support”? (i.e. most all of them). How can the likes of Dell honestly be flogging XP netbooks without at least a little *footnote that in <3 months you’ll be “afloat on your own without a paddle”?
I was checking prices of Netbooks in several stores in Scotland and found that many places selling Linux-based systems NEVER HAD THEM ON DISPLAY but the assistants would admit there were some “in the back” if I asked. One such was a Tesco store on the Kingsway in Dundee. For the spec the price was good too, but who’s going to buy or even investigate if the Linux variants are hidden??
Sold out?
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/segtopic.aspx/linux_3x?c=us&cs=19&l=en&s=dhs
@Nick
I just followed your link to the Dell site. Tried the “customize before buying” option on the desktop PC. You find several misleading messages as you go such as a Roxio advert on the DVD/optical options page, and “no office or productivity software” and “no security” on the final summary page. Bollox. It’s like they don’t really want to sell the Ubuntu systems. Just like the stores in my last post that don’t display the machines on the sales floor even when they’ve got them in stock.
This “not wanting to sell Linux” may be the result of some “carrot or stick” action from Microsoft. M$ can afford to offer some favorable conditions on Windows to sellers who agree “not to want to sell Linux”. They sustain it for a while, until the competition is strangled. Then they raise the prices. This is a classical case of dumping.Waving a big stick may be even more effective. Intimidating in a subtle way does not cost them anything. Of course, nobody knows about this because it is all done secretly.
“Not wanting to sell Linux” manifests itself in many ways. Dell hides their Linux PCs on their web site so that you have to look for them by using Google. Netbook producers equip their crations with crippled version of Linux which can perform only a few basic functions. Linux can be also put on a more expensive hardware version to make them look less attractive than their Windows-equipped cousins.
I myself have never seen anyone promoting Linux.
Amazon has several EEE PC, Acer Aspire One, and Sylvania Meso with Linux installed as OS for sale. No sales tax, free shipping if you buy directly from Amazon, and usually you’ll get stuff from Amazon within a week of ordering. I got my EEE from Amazon, happy with it. Easy shopping.
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